5 Themes That Will Define the Art Market in 2025

After the bumps in the road from 2024 in the art market, 2025 has brought a cautiously positive context. According to the OECD, global economic growth is set to remain “resilient” in the year ahead, and much of the political uncertainty wrought by more than 60 elections worldwide last year is now mostly behind us. With both interest rates and inflation expected to continue their downward trends, too, there are several reasons for those in the art market to be more optimistic than they were 12 months ago.

Here, we share five key themes in the art market to keep an eye on in 2025.

Donald Trump’s return to the U.S. presidency is undoubtedly set to define this year, and will certainly have implications for the art market. While Trump has yet to take office, there are signals from his previous presidency and 2024 campaign claims that can inform what to expect in this regard.

The first thing that springs to mind here is tax cuts. Trump’s 2017–21 presidency saw significant tax reductions for high-income tax brackets, unlocking disposable income and helping to fuel a stock market bull run throughout most of his term in office. On the campaign trail last year, Trump indicated that more tax cuts are set to come. More money to spend and the buyer confidence brought about by a robust stock market undoubtedly helped to boost luxury industries such as art, and may do so again.

Still, Trump’s tax policies were not universally positive for the U.S. art market: His administration eliminated a tax provision known as “1031 Exchange,” which had previously allowed collectors to defer capital gains taxes on art sales if they reinvested the proceeds into new artworks. These exchanges were viewed as a key factor in increased art market liquidity.

And, for the international art market, a more complicated picture of Trump’s presidency emerges. Trump has touted the use of tariffs on goods from foreign countries, which could make bringing art into the country more expensive and have far-reaching international implications. In 2017, for instance, Trump’s government levied a 25% import tariff on Chinese art and antiquities. While Trump has talked extensively about tariffs on the campaign trail, he hasn’t yet confirmed his plan for when he takes office.

Trump’s presidency could also impact those working in the art market. Immigration, which Trump has pledged to crack down on, could affect the ability of artists and arts professionals to move to the U.S. With cost-cutting frequently mentioned on Trump’s agenda, arts funding could also be in the president-elect’s crosshairs once more: In 2018 he pledged—but never succeeded—to eliminate the National Endowment for the Arts. Though it’s a small part of museums’ budget—the NEA typically gives out around $5 million to museums nationwide in total annually—it would still have an effect.

Investment in emerging art—works by artists at the start of their careers—is poised for continued growth this year as both collector and gallery interest intensifies.

According to the UBS and Art Basel Survey of Global Collecting 2024, high-net-worth individuals (HNWIs) allocated some 52% of their expenditure to works by new and emerging artists in 2023 and 2024, a rise of 8% from the previous edition of the survey. Works by artists new to the commercial market and not yet represented by a gallery, as well as by artists that had been showing in galleries or museums for under 10 years, also represented an increased share in HNWI collections compared to the same period.

Much of this is being driven by younger collectors entering the market who are attracted by emerging artists, whose works are often priced at more accessible levels. Gen Z respondents to the UBS and Art Basel survey said that some 55% of works in their art collections are by new and emerging artists. In Artsy’s Art Collector Insights 2024 report, we found that 53% of younger collectors (aged 36 or younger) said that it was important to have emerging artists in their collection versus 40% for older collectors.

This increased demand is being reflected in the sales strategies of galleries, too. In Artsy’s Art Industry Trends 2024 report last year, ultra-contemporary artists (those born in or after 1975)—which make up the vast majority of the emerging art world—were ranked by galleries as the most important segment for their businesses today.

Expect this trend to continue into 2025 as new—often younger—collectors build their collections at the most accessible end of the market.

While many market observers may want to leave discussion of cryptocurrencies in 2024, it seems there’s plenty more to come.

Cryptocurrency entrepreneur Justin Sun’s $6.2 million purchase of Maurizio Cattelan’s Comedian (2019), paid for in cryptocurrency last November, shone a renewed light on the asset class and its significance to the art market. With museum acquisitions, and even a meme coin among the key crypto stories in the art market last year, there is strong reason to believe that the prominence of these tokens will continue to grow in the industry.

Cryptocurrency is once again gathering value, but this time it is coming with new power. Bitcoin reached a record high towards the end of last year, and Donald Trump has nominated a pro-crypto hedge fund manager, Scott Bessent, as his treasury secretary. The latter is seen by many as the latest sign that more governmental recognition (and potentially regulation) for crypto is expected not just in the U.S., but worldwide.

For the art market, this could mean more adoption of cryptocurrencies in its mainstream, as new collectors and market segments continue to engage. Either way, it will be increasingly hard to ignore.

In 2024, emerging and mid-size galleries faced several challenges, from persistently high business costs to biting market pressures. In the face of this landscape, new collaborative initiatives have arisen as crucial ways for galleries to share resources.

New shared spaces such as ensemble in New York, a collaborative exhibition venue; alternative art fairs such as Place des Vosges in Paris; and joint exhibition platforms such as Amici all launched last year. Existing collaborative models, meanwhile, from the shared gallery initiative Condo in London to the predominantly shared-booth fair Art Collaboration Kyoto, continue to grow in prominence as well.

Taken together, these new models of creative exchange and cooperation are among the most significant developments in the gallery sector today and only look set to continue. The newly announced Santa Monica Post Office fair, which will take place during Frieze Los Angeles 2025, for instance, has touted its “much more collegial” approach.