The auction catalogs for the important November sales are now online, providing a complete view of the season. The aggregate presale estimate of $1.2 billion is down a third from a year ago at this time, when the aggregate estimate was just above $1.8 billion. But there are only about 1,500 lots on offer, or roughly three-quarters of the number offered last year. Fewer lots, and a lower aggregate estimate level, tells us that everyone is reading from the same playbook dictated by the weak-ish sales one year ago and in May. Consignors seem to have finally heard the message: If you want to sell something well, you have to take a risk with a very conservative estimate. Put another way, the market needs to be priced lower before it can rise higher. That’s art world math.
There are other signs that the market is gathering strength. Earlier this week, I bumped into a dealer in Nolita who is active in the guarantee market. Because he buys and sells a lot, he knows the markets of a number of specific artists really well. As a result, he gets first look at consignments that need to be backed by a third-party guarantee—the deal structure whereby the seller agrees to go to auction only if a third-party buyer commits to buying the work at an agreed-upon price if no other bidders show up.
