Advisers Take the Art Market’s Temperature ahead of Art Basel Miami Beach

It’s that time of year again—and somehow it seems like it came even quicker than usual. I’m talking, of course, about Art Basel Miami Beach, the art world’s last major selling event of the year. Perhaps that’s because last year there was a full week break between the Thanksgiving holiday in the US and the start of Miami Art Week, as the activations on both sides of the causeway are now called.

This year’s ABMB, the 22nd edition (in person at least), comes at an inflection point of sorts for the art market. The year has been consumed by discussion of a challenging market that started softening sometime in 2023. Among the given reasons: high interest rates, which dampened buying art and collectors’ collective uncertainty ahead of the US presidential election and amid geopolitical strife. The November marquee auctions in New York two weeks ago seemed to offer a glimmer of hope as most works met their pre-sale estimates—meaning that they were well priced, not that more necessarily sold. (Christie’s, for example, sold 20 percent less in total in its sales compared to the same sales last fall.) What will this final sprint to New Year’s hold for the market in 2025 and beyond? Only time will tell. 

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With many art professionals boarding planes headed to South Florida with fridges still full of leftovers, it seemed like the perfect time to ask a cohort of art advisers about what they are seeing as the curtain raises on Miami Beach.

(Answers have been edited lightly for clarity and concision.)

ARTnews: Based on the booth previews you’ve been receiving over the past couple of weeks, what are you noticing, in terms of the material and the prices? Is there a shift in the market away from the softening we’ve seen over the past year or so? Or are we seeing a continued, or even exacerbated, softening?  

Ana Sokoloff (Sokoloff + Associates): What I see is a recalibration of the market. Art Basel Miami Beach is a very important arena, and this is reflected by the wide and robust selection of works presented by the participating galleries. There seems to be an emphasis on including works by most of the artists represented by the galleries, which offers a broader scope of prices, resulting in appealing to a wider public. We are experiencing a shift in buying trends. For example, a fewer number of high-end valued works versus a broader quantity of middle-ranged ones; generational shifts in the collector base; and a noticeable change in aesthetics and politics. All these factors are contributing to the recalibration of the market that we will see in Miami this week.

Erica Barrish (EAB Fine Art Services): Over the past few weeks, we have seen the prices of artworks in art fair previews more in-line with the current market. The prices realized this past auction season in some cases far exceed the primary market. However, there seems to be a bit more price flexibility from galleries for some (but not all) secondary market works. Galleries and dealers seem more inclined to be more measured on pricing.

Paola Saracino Fendi (Schwartzman&): I am seeing galleries bringing a mix of the program and including certain works they know will find a home or be pre-sold. A lot of the primary market works are priced under $100,000 up to $250,000, with secondary works from private collectors in the $200,000 to $300,000 range. Few works are being offered in the $1 million-plus range. I am also seeing galleries bringing works by artists they don’t represent yet or are yet to announce, so it is interesting to see these artists in a different context. I have seen a few galleries that have set aside certain works for the fair from sold-out exhibitions. It feels like exhibitors are being selective in deciding whether they want to make a splash with their presentation or just want to guarantee sales.

I believe the market is still soft—but it has not gotten significantly softer—and that exhibitors who have done the fair for many years have shifted gears on what they bring, working with material that has proven successful this past year rather than introducing something unknown that has yet to be tested. They want to end the year on a positive note, which is always every exhibitor’s objective.

Wendy Cromwell (Cromwell Art LLC):I’m not noticing a softening from previews, but I am noticing that there is something for everyone at every price point. There are some exceptional secondary works priced in the millions, but also more accessible works, even for the aspirational young collector.

Rob Teeters (Front Desk Apparatus): The prices I’m seeing are mixed. Inflated primary market prices haven’t come down across the board. There are a few instances of slight adjustments, but I think galleries are still quite hesitant to make major recalibrations to primary market pricing out of fear of inducing panic over a particular artist’s market. Secondary market prices have reset and in many cases are more attractive than buying primary. I see this as a healthy readjustment. If you’re a collector with a degree of confidence and one who does not follow trends, there’s opportunity to build an incredible collection in this type of environment. The clients I work with understand this and are taking advantage of an opportunity that allows them to elevate the quality of their collections.

Laura Smith Sweeney and Meghan O’Callaghan (LSS Art Advisory): The quality of material coming to Miami continues to be high. We’ve been particularly impressed by the broader range of mid-tier and secondary market works available this year, surpassing what we typically see at Frieze New York or Los Angeles. The fair showcases a diverse selection—from high-quality secondary market pieces to intriguing emerging artists and rediscovered historical figures from across the globe. We’re especially excited to experience these discoveries in person.

Quality works remain in demand and, in many cases, are selling even before the fair begins. However, we’ve been surprised by the continued high pricing of primary market works, especially from younger artists who saw significant success during the pandemic, either at auction or through sold-out gallery exhibitions. Despite softer demand, we have yet to see a significant price correction for these artists.

ARTnews: What are you looking forward to at the fair?  

Saracino Fendi: This is Bridget Finn’s first Art Basel Miami Beach [as director], so I am looking forward to her spin on the fair. I have always appreciated her eye for younger artists and her support of younger galleries as well. There are many new galleries from different regions that have been added, which I hope brings new energy and freshness in material. She is changing the layout and the curated sections, so this will be interesting to see. Collectors are looking for new material whether it be by well-known artists or emerging. I always hope with every fair that there is a moment of education and discovery.

Cromwell: I’m excited to see some fresh blood at Art Basel. They’ve accepted the largest number of new galleries in years. The price diversification might be the result of this infusion of new participants.

Smith Sweeney & O’Callaghan: We’re eager to see Eva Helene Pade’s work at Nicolai Wallner and Thaddaeus Ropac, the Haas Brothers’ tree sculpture at Marianne Boesky, Paulo Nimer Pjota at François Ghebaly and Mendes Wood DM, a monumental Olafur Eliasson sphere work at Neugerriemschneider, Philip Guston’s Two Hearts at Hauser & Wirth, and Agnes Pelton at Michael Rosenfeld.

Sokoloff: I am always drawn to the Survey, Nova, and Positions sectors. There is an inherent risk in the introduction of not so well-known artists to a broader market, and I find it exhilarating to visit, learn, and gauge the market for these works.

Barrish: Generally, at the fair, I look forward to learning about a new artist and/or gallery program that is unfamiliar to me.

Teeters: The previews look good, and the quality seems relatively high. I’m looking forward to unearthing some gems that I didn’t see in previews. I always appreciate when galleries add a few surprises in the booth. I’m not looking forward to any gallery trying to re-create the theater and spectacle of Maurizio Cattelan’s Comedian. 

ARTnews: Speaking of a work that debuted at ABMB back in 2019 and sold for $6.24 million at Sotheby’s just last month, how indicative are the November auctions in anticipating how Art Basel Miami Beach will perform? 

Teeters: The auctions performed well, and the mood was buoyant. I feel the enthusiasm and willingness to buy will transition to Miami. There are a group of people sitting on the sidelines waiting to see where the market might settle. I think those people are now jumping back in. 

Smith Sweeney & O’Callaghan: The November New York auction market appears to have adjusted more effectively to current conditions. Estimates have been lowered sufficiently to stimulate demand, and the number of lots has been reduced, creating stronger buying across both day and evening sales. Galleries, however, often lack the same pricing flexibility and are tied to the pricing expectations of their contemporary artists, making it harder for them to adapt as quickly to market shifts. We anticipate that high-quality, in-demand artists will continue to perform well, alongside emerging artists with more accessible price points.

Barrish: The sales this November far exceeded expectations. I anticipate sales at ABMB will be active and collectors will be optimistic. Also, I would expect that there will be a return to interest in historical works.

Sokoloff: There are so many auctions happening during the year that just the November sales are no longer enough to anticipate the performance of a fair. A fair like Art Basel Miami Beach brings a very wide range of collectors from all corners of the globe, with an ample perspective of news and opinions on the state of the market. Hence, it is more of a wave that each gallery and buying group rides as it faces the market in one specific arena: in this case, Art Basel Miami Beach.

Saracino Fendi: The auctions demonstrated that if you bring a strong example of blue-chip and fresh-to-the-market works that are well or conservatively priced, there are buyers. I saw there were drastically fewer young emerging artists in the sales, which is why I believe the material at the fair will show a distinct difference from November.

Cromwell: Auctions set the mood, but Paris Art Basel is more indicative of how Art Basel Miami Beach will perform. The auction houses did a commendable job of adjusting estimates that produced solid returns in November, so the mood is good.

ARTnews: By most accounts, this year’s Art Basel Paris was a success. How do you feel the addition of Paris—it’s finally an Art Basel fair, rather than “Paris+ par Art Basel”—is affecting the art fair landscape, calendar, etc.?  

Saracino Fendi: I don’t think the name change really affected it; I think it is more that now not only is it an Art Basel fair, but it is also at the Grand Palais. Collectors love Paris and love seeing the museum exhibitions alongside the fair. I saw many new visitors to the fair this year and there was a great crowd, great energy. I know that following October, exhibitors are really taking a hard look at the calendar and evaluating what material worked and what didn’t at each fair. I think next year we will see a shift in the participation of galleries in the same way that collectors are also being increasingly selective on which fairs they want to attend. Finally, I believe that the changing composition of each fair—both in terms of gallery participation and art shown—over this past year will come to inform what we can expect from the fairs in the future.

Teeters: Paris has a great advantage due to the seductive nature of the city. The museums are world class, and the private museums are mounting exhibitions unlike anything we’ve seen. It has now become a mandatory stop on the calendar. This likely won’t bode well for the future of Frieze London since many, including myself, will opt for Paris over London the week before. 

Smith Sweeney & O’Callaghan: We feel that going forward Art Basel Paris will impact the art fair circuit over time. It will increasingly draw collectors who might have otherwise attended Basel in Switzerland. American collectors, in particular, are more inclined to travel to Paris due to its accessibility and the superior quality of museum and gallery exhibitions in the city, which serve as an added incentive.

Barrish: At this point there are far too many fairs. I think, as a result, there is less quality, historical material being offered, and younger artists are producing too much work. Additionally, Art Basel Paris has pulled much of the attention away from the fall fairs in America, throughout the rest of Europe including London, and in Asia. Collectors are overwhelmed by the options and are getting bombarded with offers. Thus, few offers are feeling important or resonating because of the volume of material being presented in fairs, on gallery checklists, and through auction previews. Collectors are being more selective about what fairs they are attending. For advisers it is harder to get collectors to focus and appreciate when there is a rare opportunity.

Sokoloff: Art Basel is the leading art fair with a loyal following of galleries and visitors hence, many flock to where it nests. How this will affect the fair landscape is still yet to be seen. However, the art market today is broad and there’s always room for all.

Cromwell: What we saw after the Covid pandemic ebbed was an increasing localization of art fair attendance, and that is still playing out. Art Basel Paris was a welcome addition to the fair calendar. I don’t think it will dilute Miami. They attract different audiences. 

ARTnews: What do you think will determine a good edition of ABMB, from the exhibitors’ perspectives? 

Cromwell: The era of blockbuster art fair sales is over; buyers are more discerning, and galleries know this. This year, a good fair from an exhibitor’s perspective will be more than half the stand sold, along with several new collectors befriending the galleries’ programs.

Saracino Fendi: I think this goes for every fair, exhibitors really feed off the energy of those who attend, forging connections with those who visit their booth, especially for the new galleries bringing attention to their programming and of course the acquisitions that are made.

Teeters: It’s always sales. End of story. Sure, it’s great if exhibitors have meaningful conversations with curators about future exhibitions but I think they would prefer to focus on what they are there to do, which is sell art.  

Barrish: Sales ultimately determine if a gallery has a successful fair. I suspect exhibitors will feel optimistic if they meet new collectors that are less speculative and more interested in sustaining, long term relationships.

Smith Sweeney & O’Callaghan: Beyond strong sales, a successful fair in Miami is about attracting key curators and influential collectors to engage with the works on view. The opportunity for these audiences to experience the art firsthand is invaluable.

Sokoloff: Success is calibrated by sales and the expansion of the gallery’s network.

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