A gallery employee poses next to artworks by English artist Theodore Ereira-Guyer, during a press preview ahead of the opening of the London Art Fair in north London on Jan. 16.
AFP via Getty Images
After an uneven year, most experts surveyed by the London data and analysis firm ArtTactic are expecting the global contemporary art market to remain much the same for 2024.
There’s “a sense of business as usual,” says Lindsay Dewar, head of analytics at ArtTactic. Respondents seem to be saying: “We don’t think it’s going to be bad, we don’t think it’s going to be good, we just need to get through another year,” Dewar says.
Dewar experienced this sentiment anecdotally during opening night of the London Art Fair this week, which was “as busy as ever,” she says. “Transactions and deals were happening.” A dealer who was on a panel discussion with her said, “I’m just going to do exactly the same this year as I did last year, and we’re going to see what happens.”
The outlook could shift dramatically, however, depending on the outcomes of wars and conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, and how the world weathers difficult economic conditions, ArtTactic found in its survey.
Among experts participating, 79% said geopolitical uncertainty “is the greatest challenge facing the art market this year,” and 77% feared high interest rates, persistent inflation, and slower economic growth could undermine a recovery.
“We could have a bumpy year ahead, mainly fueled by external factors outside the art market’s control,” ArtTactic founder
Anders Petterson
said in the report. He added, however, that “the art market has shown resilience before, and for some, the downturn last year, might provide an opportunity to re-enter the art market, as price expectations align with a new reality.”
The survey is based on responses from 124 auction specialists, collectors, dealers, curators, and other market experts surveyed earlier this month. ArtTactic has conducted the survey annually since January 2010.
Last year, respondents were more optimistic that sales would rise this year, with 37% of those surveyed expecting an uptick compared to only 20% this year. The vast majority of art experts—68%—expect sales will remain flat this year compared to 47% who thought so last year.
Digging deeper, the survey found experts to be slightly more optimistic about the secondary market than the primary market for contemporary art. Although 38% of experts were negative about future secondary market performance, 36% were neutral, and 27% were positive. For the primary market, 34% were negative, but 47% were neutral and only 19% were positive.
Those surveyed were most upbeat about the potential performance of works by post-war artists this year, with 45% expecting to see positive results. The experts were more neutral on the future of works by blue-chip artists (with 55% expressing a neutral view) and established contemporary artists (51%).
As for works by young contemporary artists (under 45 years old)—a category that slumped 43.3% last year—the experts were divided, with 34% expecting negative results this year and the same percentage expective positive results.
The findings suggest “a neutral-to-positive outlook” for the sector, the report said. “With more younger buyers entering the art market, we would expect interest and demand for a younger generation of artists to continue.”
A big factor in the future performance of works by young contemporary artists is the appetite of Asian collectors. According to ArtTactic, 39.2% of sales in this category last year were by buyers in Hong Kong, a major art hub for the region. Those sales could be dragged lower by the economic slowdown in China. The International Monetary Fund is projecting China’s economy will grow by 4.6% this year, down from 5.2% in 2023.
Of the experts surveyed, 55% believe the Chinese art market will weaken further this year, and only 17% expect it to rebound. The hit to the broader art market could be significant as buyers from China, and more broadly in Asia, accounted for 30% of bidding for works valued at US$1 million or more in the first half of last year, ArtTactic said.
“Lower demand could have a significant impact on the top-end of the market, which accounted for roughly 75% of the fine art market sales at Christie’s, Sotheby’s, and Phillips,” the firm said.
Contraction is likely to continue at the very top end of the market, “where people are a bit more wary, and you have to have the right buyer and the right seller to make these kinds of deals happen,” Dewar says.
As was the case last year, she expects sellers will continue to manage expectations so that they can close deals—because collectors are still willing to buy at the right price. Sellers “want to transact and they’re willing to lower the price if that’s what it takes,” Dewar says.
A bright spot for the auction market last year was, in fact, in lower-priced works, snapped up by new, younger buyers. Sales of art valued below US$50,000 rose 10.3% from a year earlier to US$140.4 million, and the number of lots sold rose 21.6% to more than 9,100 works.
The experts are divided on the future of this segment for 2024, however, with 38% expecting a positive outcome and 41% expecting a downturn, ArtTactic said.
“As the top-end of the art market has softened in 2023, there is a risk that the weaker sentiment in the market will start to trickle down to the lower price segments,” the firm said. Still, the experts are optimistic on the market for limited editions and prints, which tend to be offered at lower price points. Among those surveyed, 34% have a positive view of this segment, up from 33% the previous year.
As an undervalued sector, prints and editions could present an opportunity this year, Dewar says. “When the top end is on the go-slow, people will start turning their attention to the lower end of the market and the print sections,” she says.
Among the most positive perspectives in the report is the outlook for art by women. Sales of works by female artists rose 10.5% last year to nearly US$788 million. That’s 14.4% of total sales, up from 9.5% in 2022, ArtTactic said.
The outlook is strong in part because of a series of big museum and gallery shows planned for this year, including “Women Artists in Britain, 1520-1920,” through March at the Tate in London and Mary Cassat at the Philadelphia Museum of Art in May.
“This year offers ample opportunities to learn about and revisit an older generation of women artists, who have largely been neglected by the market up until now,” the report said.
