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Good Friday morning. This is Andrew McDonald.
DRIVING THE DAY
A BIG, BEAUTIFUL DEAL: Keir Starmer’s lieutenants have the Friday job of selling his U.S. trade deal, and will seek to ride a positivity wave after getting a decent bit of what they hoped for from the (wild) world of Donald Trump. As MPs, experts and the fourth estate continue to pore over the details, there are plenty of unanswered questions, as you’d expect, while thoughts are already turning to the next steps in the negotiations.
Batting first: Starmer himself is out of the country at the Joint Expeditionary Force meeting in Oslo (more on that shortly). Chief Secretary to the Treasury Darren Jones has been picked to face the morning media round — and you can bet he’ll be armed with lots of glowing words for the PM and Ambassador Peter Mandelson’s Trump-whispering/hand-holding qualities. He faces the Today program (8.10 a.m.) and others as usual.
Making that easier … is the fact that the deal gets a relatively positive reception across most of today’s newspapers. Not even a new pope could knock it off most of the front pages — headlines at the bottom of this email.
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But but but: Do remember amid all the noise that Britain is still in a worse trading place with the U.S. than it was … er … four months ago, and has granted America some tariff reductions to get here. Just look at this chart shared by Trump and pretty much everyone else on X last night.
Realpolitik: Hence Starmer pointedly telling the Beeb’s Chris Mason on Thursday that the real question is whether things had improved from “yesterday,” rather than from the situation before Trump. Chancellor Rachel Reeves makes that point too in an op-ed for the Times, where she says “the world has changed, but these past few days have shown Britain’s strengths in navigating that change.” That will be the key message as ministers and officials get into sales mode today and over the weekend.
SO WHAT NOW? Given the scope of the deal itself is fairly limited, the work of Starmer’s negotiators is far from over and No. 10 is looking for more. That leaves questions for the government on exactly what it wants next — and what it’s prepared to give up to get there.
I’ve seen the future, brother: One of the government’s big elements of hope for the next stage is for a far-reaching partnership on tech including AI with the U.S., long-championed as the real prize by Mandelson and co. Officials will soon start brainstorming on how to proceed with a fresh and palatable offer for the U.S., Playbook hears.
It is murder (of tariffs): The other bit of optimism emanating from the government and outriders last night is that further carve-outs and elimination of tariffs might be possible in certain areas. There’s a belief in government that the U.S. is open to further negotiations on some specific tariff lines, which could be eliminated at little or no cost (but for high potential gain). But there’s scant detail on what these areas could be at this stage. One U.K. official said negotiations will continue on the baseline 10 percent tariffs, though Britain might be asking for more than the U.S. is currently prepared to offer there.
But to get to those nice things … Trump is gonna want something. Which brings us to the tricky bit.
Less tax, more digital services: Multiple officials made clear last night that, despite being saved from harm in the deal, watering down the Digital Services Tax for the U.S. remains alive in future negotiations. “Everything’s on the table,” one U.K. official told my colleagues for their ace insider take on how Britain got to the front of Trump’s trade queue. “If it’s something fantastically attractive … if the sum that goes into the deal outweighs what goes with the digital services tax, then let’s do it.”
There’s more: Trump trade adviser Peter Navarro said last night that the digital services tax is “still in negotiations” and “a very big deal to President Trump.” A second U.K. official said it may come back as a bargaining chip when looking at the bigger tech partnership, though the U.S. didn’t press on it while getting this deal over the line. The Times’ Steven Swinford hears the same on the tax’s likely role as a “key request” for the U.S. in the future.
Trouble, ahead: Regular readers will remember that the idea of watering down a tax on big tech is … not universally popular among Labour MPs.
And then there’s the beef … after the U.K. gave up ground to allow reciprocal market access on the meat derived from cows. Of course, officials stress there have been no concessions on food standards — and that farmers concerned about U.S. beef flooding the market will get the lucrative chance to sell their product to the U.S. But there’s no guarantee that the Trump administration won’t try to push for further access in the future for their chlorinated or hormone-treated meat products in return for some of the goodies No. 10 is still seeking from future negotiations.
Case in point: Our big insider piece reveals that Trump asked Starmer to cut U.K. tariffs on American ethanol and pork in that 11th hour phone call. Britain accepted the former but not the latter.
In the diary: Playbook hears that a meeting between Environment Secretary Steve Reed and his U.S. counterpart, Brooke Rollins, is on for Monday when the U.S. agriculture secretary flies in to Britain. Oh, to be a cow-fly on the wall.
Also in the diary: The U.K.-EU summit on May 19, where any agreement on food export rules might pose a (politically useful?) barrier to America’s desires. Attention will now turn to that relationship; Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey told the BBC it’d be “beneficial” to rebuild it.
In security news: It isn’t clear exactly what this sentence in the agreement, which makes the splash of the Telegraph, means: “[Both countries] intend to co-operate on the effective use of investment security measures.” The Telegraph reckons this amounts to a “sort of veto” for the U.S. on major Chinese investment in the U.K. — which, remember, the new government has spent a fair amount of time chasing. Other government sources told the paper that it isn’t an outright veto, but instead allows the U.S. to flag concerns about Chinese companies buying up key infrastructure.
Remember: We still haven’t seen the full text of the deal.
On the losers: There was no formal inclusion of carve-outs for the pharma industry or film industry from future tariffs either, though both sides agreed to negotiate further on both, and “preferential treatment” on pharma was promised by Trump. Officials are keeping a close eye on the U.S. activity and noise on pharmaceuticals in particular, and the two industries will be looking for details on how negotiations are going as the weeks progress.
And now the big winners — cars and steel: After Starmer visited Jaguar Land Rover’s factory in Solihull to talk up the deal’s win on automobiles Thursday … Business Secretary Jonathan Reynolds heads to Sheffield Forgemasters this afternoon to tout the other big winner from the deal. He’ll speak to the Yorkshire Post. There are still some questions here, though, and as the FT writes in its wrap of the winners and losers, the U.K. Steel trade body wants to know if there are strings attached to the offer for steel to qualify for the zero percent tax.
While on the subject of winners: The other clear boon for the government is the healthy status of the U.K. and U.S. relationship, which looks a lot more special than it often has over the last few decades of “back of the queue” comments and uncaring goodbyes. One of the officials quoted above told Playbook Britain managed to get there first with a U.S. deal partly because we were well organized … but also because Trump just “likes us.” In his effort to sell the deal, Foreign Secretary David Lammy writes on that theme in today’s Independent.
The serious point: There’s a feeling in Whitehall that the closer Britain can hold hands with Trump, the better their chances of pushing him further on other, trickier issues — like the war in Ukraine, where the president’s rhetoric has shifted in recent weeks. Bloomberg’s Alex Wickham hears that the U.K. is “optimistic Trump is moving in their direction” on Ukraine. Whatever Trump’s nature (unpredictable) or U.K. favorability ratings (bad), Starmer and his team feel Thursday vindicated his approach of hugging Trump close. The next few months will either consolidate or damage that view.
Now read: Top insider pieces on how the deal was done and the last-minute chaos that enveloped as No. 10 hurriedly got ready for Thursday’s fun and games, including in POLITICO … the Times … the Telegraph … the FT … the Mail … Sky News … the i … and pretty much everywhere else, too.
And ICYMI: POLITICO’s pro reporters have the full guide to what was in, and what wasn’t in, the agreement.
IN OTHER AMERICAN NEWS: In a stark example of how the U.S. seems to be dominating the world … an American became pope for the first time last night.
However … Pope Leo XIV doesn’t seem to be a fan of Trump or his allies. Excavation of his old tweets and utterances began in haste, with the Telegraph among others finding old posts in which he appeared to criticize the Trump administration’s moves on immigration and JD Vance’s views on the teachings of Jesus. Steve Bannon called Leo the “worst pick for MAGA Catholics,” my Stateside colleagues write.
Learning about Leo: Despite all that, Leo appears to be more of a compromise candidate — not as conservative as some of those in the frame or as liberal as others. POLITICO’s Ben Munster and Hannah Roberts have an essential piece from Rome on the new pope (known as the “Latin Yankee”) and his potential to be the bridge builder many feel the Church needs after Pope Francis. Whisper it, but … is it another centrist comeback?
BACK IN A JEF-YY
FROM TRADE WAR TO PURE WAR: Keir Starmer gets to think about a different kind of war today as he heads to a Joint Expeditionary Force gathering in Oslo — where northern European allies will gather and talk up plans to pressure Vladimir Putin and support Ukraine. Starmer arrives in Oslo early this morning, where he’ll deliver the usual “warm words” on camera on arrival and then record a pool clip in the early afternoon. He’s also expected to do a few interviews with hacks traveling with him, though No. 10 didn’t bring a full lobby pack. The government unveiled a fresh wave of sanctions on Russia’s so-called shadow fleet overnight.
But the backdrop … will be fairly extraordinary scenes in Moscow, where Vladimir Putin is parading his influence by hosting an expected 29 heads of state or government for a military parade to celebrate Russia’s success in World War II. China’s Xi Jinping is the guest of honor at the festivities in the Red Square, after he and Putin agreed Thursday to “defend the formation of a more just and democratic multipolar world order,” according to a Kremlin readout, via CNN.
Plus: Putin is already being accused of breaking his own ceasefire, just hours after it came into effect on Thursday. The Ukrainian military said ground assaults continued in several areas of the eastern front, as the Mail’s James Reynolds writes up here.
He’s even (almost) lost this guy: Trump added to recent increasingly anti-Putin noises from senior members of his administration last night by Truth Socialing a demand for a 30-day unconditional ceasefire — and stating his availability at a moment’s notice to help get it over the line. He didn’t go as far as his veep JD Vance in saying that Putin is asking for too much in negotiations, but even upping the pressure on Russia to for an unconditional ceasefire is seen as progress given where Trump was a few months ago.
However: Kyiv — along with most people currently paying attention — remains doubtful that the talks are really going anywhere. “It is impossible to hold rational talks with Russia,” senior Zelenskyy adviser Mykhailo Podolyak told the Times’ Marc Bennetts, describing peace negotiations as a “big illusion.” He said the only way to get away from a forever war was by sharply increasing the costs of war to Moscow.
Which is why … Starmer and his defense chief, John Healey, will both once again emphasize the importance of piling pressure on Putin today. Healey appears at the London Defence Conference in the capital this morning, where he’ll take part in an “in-conversation” event with King’s professor John Gearson from 9 a.m. No word on if the event is being pooled or streamed, but Playbook hears Healey will argue that the West needs to redouble the pressure on Putin to negotiate.
One Q for Healey: Could Brit soldiers effectively become part of an EU army of sorts, as the Telegraph’s Joe Barnes reports this morning? The paper says it has seen a leaked draft of the new defense and security partnership between Britain and the EU, which says the PM would have to consider sending British troops on military operations upon the invitation of the EU, which the Tel describes as allowing the U.K. to be “smuggled into a Brussels army by the back door.” The key word in the previous sentence may well be “consider.”
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TODAY IN WESTMINSTER
MORE WELFARE PRESSURE BUILDING: It might be getting lost amid, well, everything … but the pressure is growing on the government from within on its welfare reforms. The Times’ Max Kendix reports that now more than 80 MPs have signed a new letter set to be sent to the chief whip on Monday calling for a pause to the reforms to consider their impact on the most vulnerable, up from the 40ish who wrote to Starmer Thursday. Even with a rebellion of that size, the bill would still pass — but the government’s biggest rebellion yet would certainly be damaging to the vibes, obvs.
WHAT THE GOVERNMENT WANTS TO TALK ABOUT: The duration of postgraduate teaching apprenticeships will be cut to nine months, from 12, as part of Labour’s pledge to recruit an additional 6,500 new expert teachers. PA has a write-up.
WHAT THE TORIES WANT TO TALK ABOUT: Shadow Chancellor Mel Stride is off to the last Beales department store in the U.K. this morning — which is soon closing its Poole store, blaming Rachel Reeves’ NICs rises in the budget for bringing an end to the business. The store is holding a “Rachel Reeves closing down sale,” so expect to see Stride clutching one of the posters. The Telegraph writes up the Beales closure here.
IN LONDON: London Mayor Sadiq Khan is announcing a new consultation on housing, which will indicate that the mayor is set to actively explore building homes on London’s green belt, something a figure close to the mayor says “will be the biggest change in London’s planning policy since the green belt was introduced in the 1960s.” Expect lots of YIMBY vs. NIMBY fights to come. Khan will make a speech in South East London this morning, before doing some interviews.
DATA DRAMA: The U.K. border system will “continue to fail” if it does not fully monitor whether a person leaves the country after their visa runs out, Labour MP Clive Betts said. The BBC has the story.
ROBO-MINISTERS: Civil Servants in the Department for Education, the Home Office and the Cabinet Office have been using Nostrada.ai to test their policy ideas on digital “clones” of senior politicians before presenting them to the head honchos, the Spectator reports.
REPORTS OUT TODAY: Government cyber defences have not kept up with the dangerous and evolving hacker threats, with vulnerable “legacy” IT systems making up 28 percent of all public sector IT, the Public Accounts Committee warns … Delivering a biosecurity strategy is key to protecting the U.K. from increasingly hostile states, according to a TBI report with a foreword by Tony Blair and William Hague … The government should relaunch the last Labour government’s Total Place initiative to improve public services at a local level, says the Institute for Government.
HOUSE OF COMMONS: Not sitting. Got that Friday feeling.
HOUSE OF LORDS: Sits from 10 a.m. with a debate on the 80th anniversary of the victory in Europe and the victory over Japan.
BEYOND THE M25
THE ONE TO WATCH IN WALES … is Plaid Cymru leader Rhun ap Iorwerth (pronounced Rheen ap YORR-werth, if you somehow didn’t know this by now), after a poll suggested his party will be the biggest in the Senedd. If that happens, ap Iorwerth clearly expects to become Wales’ first minister in any two-party deal, he told POLITICO’s Dan Bloom.
For the uninitiated: Labour-Plaid is the obvious choice for a center-left pact despite this week’s poll putting Labour third in the Senedd behind Reform UK. The two parties had a coalition from 2007 to 2009 and a three-year “cooperation agreement” that Plaid ended early in 2024. First Minister Eluned Morgan has firmly picked a Plaid-voter-facing strategy (to the outcry of some Labour MPs) despite the threat from Reform.
Setting out the options: “Coalition is only one option on the table,” Ap Iorwerth told Dan. “There’s deal-by-deal, issue-by-issue, confidence and supply. These are the ranges of options that are available.” He added there “can’t and won’t be a relationship” with Reform and he “cannot see any context” where there’s a Tory tie-up. (He was less definitive about Lib Dems or Greens.)
But here’s the campaign message: Plaid will be pushing hard on the argument that it can get the first minister job. “It’s who leads that Welsh government that provides the tone, that provides the direction,” ap Iorwerth told Dan.
If that happens … there’s the immediate question of when Plaid demands a Welsh independence referendum. Ap Iorwerth told hacks this week it wouldn’t be in his first term, but told PA’s David Lynch it could happen “within our lifetime.” Got to start somewhere.
NOT EASY LISTENING: The Aberdeen and Grampian Chamber of Commerce is holding an emergency presser in Aberdeen at 9.15 a.m. in response to big job losses at the U.K.’s largest oil and gas producer. Harbour Energy has blamed the cuts squarely on government policies, including the energy windfall tax that Labour extended last year. The Scottish government criticized Westminster over the job cuts on Thursday. More in the Press and Journal.
EXECUTIVE ORDER ENACTED: U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has ordered transgender troops to be kicked out of the military if they do not leave on their own by June 6, Reuters reports.
INDIA-PAKISTAN LATEST: The Indian military accused Pakistan of attacking three of its military bases with drones and missiles, which Islamabad denies, according to the BBC. On Thursday, India said it struck Pakistan’s air defences and “neutralized” attempts to hit military targets the day before. Pakistan described that as another “act of aggression.”
**A message from Google: Targeted AI training boosts skills and can close the adoption gap. Google’s AI Works initiative proves practical training can rapidly build confidence and skills, driving inclusion regardless of age or starting point. Among women aged 55+, just a few hours of training tripled daily usage (from 9% to 29%) Read the AI Works report for insights on inclusive upskilling: goo.gle/aiworks**
MEDIA ROUND
Chief Secretary to the Treasury Darren Jones broadcast round: Times Radio (7.05 a.m.) … Sky (7.15 a.m.) … BBC Breakfast (7.30 a.m.) … LBC (7.50 a.m.) … Today (8.10 a.m.) … GMB (8.30 a.m.) … GB News (8.55 a.m.).
Shadow Business and Trade Secretary Andrew Griffith broadcast round: Talk (7.30 a.m.) … Times Radio (7.45 a.m.) … GB News (8 a.m.) … Sky News (8.15 a.m.) … LBC (8.45 a.m.).
Also on Nick Ferrari at Breakfast: Former U.K. Chief Trade Negotiation Adviser Crawford Falconer (7.05 a.m.) … former Chancellor Jeremy Hunt (8.35 a.m.).
Also on Times Radio Breakfast: National Beef Association CEO Neil Shand (7.30 a.m.) … Keir Starmer’s former Political Director Luke Sullivan (8.15 a.m.).
Also on Sky News Breakfast: Former Conservative MP, who is now serving in the Ukrainian International Legion, Jack Lopresti (7.30 a.m.) … former Pakistani national security adviser Moeed Yusuf (7.45 a.m.).
Also on LBC News: UK Steel Director General Gareth Stace (8.20 a.m.).
TODAY’S FRONT PAGES
POLITICO UK: Trump deal won’t save Starmer.
Daily Express: UK ‘shafted’ by Starmer’s US trade deal.
Daily Mail: U.S. trade deal made by Brexit.
Daily Mirror: Honour their legacy.
Daily Star: The future’s orange!
Financial Times: Starmer seals first US trade deal since start of Trump war.
i: UK wins global race to shake off worst Trump trade tariffs.
Metro: Holy smoke … That was quick!
The Daily Telegraph: PM hands US ‘veto’ on China deals.
The Guardian: ‘Evil will not prevail’ — first US pope vows to build bridges.
The Independent: Starmer and Trump hail ‘Victory Day’ historic trade deal.
The Sun: God bless American.
The Times: PM hails ‘historic’ deal with US.
TODAY’S NEWS MAGS
The Economist: What Putin wants.
The New European: He won. Now what?
THANK POD IT’S FRIDAY
Westminster Insider: Host Patrick Baker figures out how to survive the morning round, with guests including minister media trainer Scarlett McGwire, former Defence Secretary Grant Shapps, GMB Presenter Richard Madeley, former Labour shadow minister Jonathan Ashworth and former No. 10 deputy press secretary Jack Sellers.
EU Confidential: Host Sarah Wheaton discusses a week of shaken coalitions and rising populism with POLITICO’s Nette Nöstlinger in Berlin, our in-house Romanian expert Carmen Paun, and Chief Political Correspondent in Europe and the U.K. Tim Ross.
Plus six of the other best political podcasts to listen to this weekend:
WW2 Pod — We Have Ways of Making You Talk: Prime Minister Keir Starmer joins Al Murray and James Holland to commemorate VE Day, and to discuss Britain’s role in WW2, NATO and international peace.
The Steamie: MSP and architect of the Assisted Dying for Terminally Ill Adults (Scotland) Bill Liam McArthur joins the team to discuss the legislation.
The Rundown: Labour MP Joe Powell, journalist and author Roisin Lanigan, Renters’ Reform Coalition’s Director Tom Darling, Shelter’s Head of Policy Charles Trew and the National Residential Landlords Association’s Chris Norris join host Alain Tolhurst to discuss the Renters Rights Bill.
The Reunion: Host Kirsty Wark looks back at the 2010 coalition government and talks to people who negotiated the arrangement, including Lib Dem negotiator Danny Alexander, former party Leader Vince Cable, former Labour frontbencher Ed Balls, former Conservative Leader William Hague, plus Radio 4’s Nick Robinson and POLITICO’s Anne McElvoy.
Parliament Matters: Assisted dying bill architect Kim Leadbeater joins hosts Ruth Fox and Mark D’Arcy to discuss the impact assessment, amendments she will be bringing forward, and key issues raised in the committee stage.
The Political Party: Former senior Labour adviser John McTernan joins host Matt Forde to analyze the local elections.
LONDON CALLING
WESTMINSTER WEATHER: TGIF — the sun is out in full force! High 20C, low 9C.
BAPTISM OF FIRE: Science Secretary Peter Kyle was running 45 minutes late to an “in conversation” session in Brighton to discuss AI, so unsuspecting Labour councilor Jacob Allen was picked on to deliver on the government’s approach while the crowd waited. Hey, dress for the job you want.
NOW READ: The Times’ Patrick Maguire has a column on Reform UK’s bigger-than-they-thought hyperlocal plan for government, which focuses on bins, potholes and immigration.
WRITING PLAYBOOK PM: Emilio Casalicchio.
WRITING PLAYBOOK MONDAY MORNING: Andrew McDonald.
HAPPY BIRTHDAY TO: Stoke-on-Trent South MP Allison Gardner … former Lib Dem leader Vince Cable … MHCLG civil servant Ben Wood … West Yorkshire Mayor Tracy Brabin … Liverpool Wavertree MP Paula Barker … former Labour MP Iain Wright … former Transport Secretary Ruth Kelly … former NICE Chief Executive Andrew Dillon.
And celebrating over the weekend: Tooting MP Rosena Allin-Khan … former Stone MP Bill Cash … Liverpool West Derby MP Ian Byrne … Labour peer Anna Healy … writer Jon Ronson … speechwriter Abigail Martin … Bournemouth West MP Jessica Toale … former Newsnight presenter Jeremy Paxman … former Rushcliffe MP Ruth Edwards … High Court Chancellor Julian Flaux … crossbench peer Narendra Patel … SNP MSP Bob Doris … political betting expert Mike Smithson … the Cabinet Office’s Josephine Amos.
PLAYBOOK COULDN’T HAPPEN WITHOUT: My editors Zoya Sheftalovich, Dan Bloom and Alex Spence, diary reporter Bethany Dawson and producer Dean Southwell.
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