Even as global art sales have flagged over the last few years, Paris has proven a haven for the European art market. The French capital’s commercial scenes has continued to grow thanks to an influx of international galleries following Brexit, major private museums, and the recent addition of Art Basel Paris. Could this be changing? The country’s leadership and its national budget are in limbo after the government collapsed in a parliamentary no-confidence vote last week.
“Markets don’t like uncertainty, and we’ve had a great deal of uncertainty [this year],” said Georgina Adam, the co-president and chair at the Art Business Conference, which held its sixth Paris event at the Centre Pompidou on December 3. There, experts shared their views on how the shifting political landscape, new collector habits, and the rise of the Middle East are reshaping the art market.
Here are five key takeaways from the event.
Lingering Uncertainty in 2025
Adam, eschewing the often-used term “correction,” said 2024 has proved a “weak” year for the market. “It’s been tough,” she added. In terms of what to expect for next year, that will largely depend on the geopolitical situation and Trump.
November’s U.S. presidential election fueled market uncertainty through 2024, but Donald Trump’s win has since boosted the dollar and crypto markets. While his planned tax cuts may spur spending, the president-elect’s aggressive proposed tariffs on Mexican, Canadian, and Chinese imports could offset gains by raising costs. Europe should also brace for potential tariffs, warned Adam.
Adrien Meyer, Christie’s global head of private sales and co-head of Impressionist and Modern art, sells René Magritte’s L’Empire des Lumières, for $121.2 million. Courtesy of Christie’s.
There is room for hope, though. Despite ongoing political shifts, interest rates are starting to fall in many major markets, which could help alleviate some economic pressure. The European Central Bank (ECB) will hold its final policy meeting of 2024 on December 12 and is expected to deliver its fourth interest rate cut of the year, lowering its key deposit rate to three percent—its lowest level since March 2023.
Despite a drop in auction sales this year, there have been some exceptional records set, which includes René Magritte’s 1954 Empire of Light selling for $121.1 million last month at Christie’s, making it the most expensive Surrealist work to ever sell at auction. Adam also noted “a huge catch-up” when it comes to sale prices for works by women and Latin American artists.
Women on the Rise
Women are also rising to the top across all sectors of the art world, though there is still progress to be made, particularly in terms of equal pay.
“Women power the art world,” said Sigrid Kirk, the founder of the London-based organization Association of Women in the Arts (AWITA). She estimates about 75 percent of the sector is run by women who are the “engines” of the sector, yet inequalities around ethnicity, gender, and class still define the “highly secretive business,” of art-selling. Kirk said a pay gap persists between men and women at large companies in the industry, where female employees earn less than their male counterparts.
In the Middle East, women are also building widely recognized careers. Particularly in Saudi Arabia, “the number of women, who at first were discreet… and who are saying today, ‘I am an artist, and I am a woman,’ is incredible,” said Laure d’Hauteville, founder and director of the MENART Fair. “We are in the midst of witnessing art history.”
Opportunities in the Gulf
After a major cultural infrastructure boom, the Gulf region’s art scene has quickly internationalized. Just last week, the French president Emmanuel Macron visited Saudi Arabia and struck a €50 million deal with the kingdom to help fund Centre Pompidou’s renovation project. The market is following suit, with both Christie’s and Sotheby’s announcing plans for Riyadh outposts within the last few months.
Riyadh’s Al Faisaliyah Center, where Sotheby’s will open a new outpost. Courtesy of Sotheby’s.
“Amid a generally morose [art] market, the Middle East market has remained dynamic over the last three years,” said Ridha Moumni, chairman of Middle East and Africa for Christie’s. The auction house has gained 15 percent of new clients from the region, he added. Additionally, while tax havens like Dubai are a natural attraction for high-net-worth individuals, Moumni noted the United Arab Emirates in general is drawing new residents because of its “dynamic” growth, level of security, and welcoming nature.
In a separate panel on the Middle East as a rising art market destination, d’Hauteville said the Gulf’s younger generations are buying. “Today, their target is to really become art collectors, but to do so with intelligence,” she said. “They share a protocol for acquisition that involves amassing a collection that can help their country later or uplift it.”
Focus on the Next Generation
Indeed, one of the recurring topics of the day was the next generation of art collectors. “We are really at a tipping point, and the reason we’re at a tipping point, is the banana!” said Adam. She cited Justin Sun’s $6.2 million purchase of Maurizio Cattelan’s duct-taped banana using cryptocurrency as proof of younger generations’ comfort with digital tools. According to Adam, the sale was a clarion call to the art world to adapt.
The looming “great wealth transfer” of trillions of dollars from Baby Boomers to their children raises questions about whether younger heirs will share their parents’ art-collecting tastes. With that in mind, Marie-Anne Ginoux, managing director at Sotheby’s France, said the auction house is diversifying its revenue streams. Indeed, half of the house’s bidders are now in their 40s, Ginoux said, and millennials are particularly interested in luxury items like jewelry, watches, and handbags. With an eye toward drawing in younger audiences, Sotheby’s new sale room in Paris is designed to offer a variety of experiences to clients, including a restaurant, a wine cellar for tasting, and luxury retail space.
Using social media remains key for targeting younger audiences and is an area still ripe for creative development, according to influencer Salomé Monpetit, who runs @matchwithart on Instagram, which has 26,600 followers. And much more can be done in terms of shared, experience-based, immersive events. At the London-based private members club The House of KOKO, music, art, and culture mix in one building, responding to demand for connection with others, said the club’s CEO and Creative Director, Olly Benjough. Gen Z and millennials in particular are “a bit more restless,” he said. “So they’re used to a multi-layered approach.”
Art as an Investment?
During a panel about art as an investment, many noted that art, while providing joy and intellectual value, is not a surefire return. Yet others said there is still plenty of room for investor exploration.
Arnaud Dubois, founder of the financial firm Matis, which specializes in 20th-century art investment, said the art market “is not profitable over long term,” but in the short term, “there’s a possibility for market arbitration.” To tap into market segments with potential for financial reward, he recommends looking at “important” artists and paintings from the 1960s through the 1980s, whose markets he predicts will rise.
When questioned about the risks of speculation, Dubois noted that contemporary art collectors are natural speculators, driven by a desire to be the first to discover artists. “They don’t like to lose, even if they don’t lose money. Speculation is just part of the game,” he said.
